⚠ LOCAL FILE MODE — Live Polymarket data requires a web server. Browsers block cross-origin requests from file:// URLs.
Deploy to GitHub Pages, Netlify, or any web host for live data. Static snapshot data is shown below.
▸ Assessment Verdict
Optimal Return Window: July – August 2026
Based on Polymarket ceasefire odds + 6-week normalization lag · Current status: HIGH RISK
◉ FEED
LOADING LATEST INTELLIGENCE…
DXB_THREAT_LVL=HIGH ··· CEASEFIRE_P(APR)=0.26 ··· HORMUZ_TRANSIT=5.2/DAY ··· ADVISORY=LVL3 ··· CEASEFIRE_P(JUN)=0.65 ··· SAFE_RETURN_PEAK=AUG ··· CONFLICT_END_P(DEC)=0.86 ··· DXB_THREAT_LVL=HIGH ··· CEASEFIRE_P(APR)=0.26 ··· HORMUZ_TRANSIT=5.2/DAY ··· ADVISORY=LVL3 ··· CEASEFIRE_P(JUN)=0.65 ··· SAFE_RETURN_PEAK=AUG ··· CONFLICT_END_P(DEC)=0.86 ···
▸ Primary Analysis — When to Return
Composite: ceasefire probability + advisory downgrade lag + flight normalization. Peak = optimal return window. Updates live from Polymarket.
WHAT IT SHOWSMonthly probability distribution — the chance that month X is the first month Dubai is genuinely safe to return to.
COMPOSITE MODELThree sequential gates must all be cleared: (1) ceasefire/conflict end, (2) US advisory drops ≤ Level 2, (3) major Western carriers operating to DXB.
FORMULAP(safe in M) ≈ ceasefire_density[M−2]×0.6 + ceasefire_density[M−1]×0.4 — applies the lag model.
LAG ASSUMPTIONSAdvisory: ~4 weeks post-ceasefire. Flights: 6–8 weeks. Shifts peak ~2 months later than ceasefire peak. Based on Gulf War 1991, Lebanon 2006 precedents.
LIVE UPDATEWhen Polymarket data loads, ceasefire density is recalculated from live market prices and the lag model is re-applied automatically. The peak month updates accordingly.
KEY UNCERTAINTYAssumes ceasefire = end of missile threat. A fragile ceasefire could leave residual risk. Discount safe-return probability by 20–30% for this tail.
Three probability distributions across scenarios. Best/base/worst case. Find the peak of each curve.
SCENARIO WEIGHTSBest ~25% · Base ~50% · Worst ~25%. Weights are Polymarket-implied (derived from cumulative probability distribution shape).
BEST CASECeasefire in Apr–May. Iran accepts US Hormuz-first demand. Safe return peaks July at ~32%.
BASE CASECeasefire in May–Jun (65% Polymarket by Jun 30). Oman-mediated deal. Safe return peaks August at ~20%.
WORST CASEConflict extends beyond Q3 (~14% implied probability). Safe return peaks November at ~10%.
SWING FACTORApr 6 US deadline on Iranian power grid. Strike = escalation → worst case shift. Delay/deal = best case shift.
▸ Underlying Signals — Live Polymarket Feed
Derived by differencing Polymarket cumulative odds. Brighter bar = peak month. Recalculated on every refresh.
LIVE SOURCEFetches from gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=us-x-iran-ceasefire-by. Each market in the event is a binary YES/NO for a specific date. YES price = cumulative probability.
DIFFERENCINGP(ceasefire IN month M) = P(by end of M) − P(by end of M−1). Missing months (Jul, Aug, Oct, Nov) are linearly interpolated between anchor datapoints.
MARKET VOLUMECeasefire market: $85.5M+ traded. High volume → tight spreads → higher forecast accuracy. Polymarket high-volume markets consistently beat expert forecasters (Tetlock 2023).
WHY APRIL PEAKS26% cumulative probability by Apr 30, minus ~1% by Mar 31 = 25% in April. All early-resolution probability mass concentrates in the first available month.
TAIL RISK~14% probability not resolved by Dec 31 (100% − 86% Dec cumulative). Represents conflict extending into 2027.
▸ Current Threat Status
Threat Snapshot
Real-time indicators
438
Ballistic Missiles at UAE
~40%
DXB Flights Operating
5-7
Hormuz Transits/Day (norm:100)
Current vs. projected post-ceasefire
SCORING1–10 scale. 10 = max disruption. Scores are analyst judgements calibrated to observable indicators.
HORMUZ [9.5]Worst axis. 5–7 daily transits vs ~100 normal. Recovery requires ceasefire + mine-clearing + insurance market reopen + shipper confidence. Could lag ceasefire by months.
PROJECTED AUGAll axes projected at 2–3 assuming ceasefire by June. Residual reflects reconstruction, elevated insurance premia, diplomatic normalisation time.
Polymarket cumulative odds — live
HORMUZ 22%Polymarket "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Apr 30" ($2.3M volume). Currently averaging 0–10 ships/day (98% probability on that market).
APR→JUN GAP26% → 65% cumulative. The 39% gap represents base-case probability mass concentrated in May–June. This is the sweet spot window to watch.
LIVE UPDATESThese numbers update every refresh from Polymarket API. Watch for: Apr% rising (early resolution), Jun% rising (delayed resolution), or gap narrowing (uncertainty collapsing).
Active missile/drone threatONGOING
Hormuz normal by Apr 3022%
Ceasefire by Apr 3026%
Ceasefire by Jun 3065%
Conflict ends by Dec 3186%
Airline Status
DXB flight operations
Emirates / flydubaiOPERATING
Qatar AirwaysLIMITED
Air India / IndiGoRESUMING
Air FranceSUSP → APR 19
British AirwaysSUSP → MAY 31
Lufthansa GroupSUSP → MAY 31
United AirlinesSUSP → JUN 15
Key Dates
Upcoming inflection points
APR 6
Trump deadline: Iranian power grid strikes — escalation inflection
APR 11
6-week war mark — historical diplomatic momentum window
MID-MAY
European airline suspension reviews; Qatar Airways 120+ routes target
JUN 30
Polymarket: 65% ceasefire probability milestone
Cumulative Reference STATIC
Polymarket raw "by date X" odds — live
⚠ LIVE DATA: Polymarket prediction markets refresh every 10 minutes. Market prices reflect crowd wisdom, not certainty. "Safe to return" requires: ceasefire + advisory ≤ L2 + major airlines operating to DXB. This is not professional security advice. Always check official government advisories before travelling.